RBA's Looming Decision: A Double-Edged Sword for Homeowners?

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A majority of economic pundits propose that the RBA’s prolonged battle against inflation has reached its zenith, with inflation indicators finally settling into a comfortable two to three per cent bracket. This belief inclines most experts towards anticipating a rate reduction. However, insights from a report on finder.com.au signal that 10 experts out of a 37-member panel might expect otherwise.

"The pressure mounts for the RBA to lower rates as headline inflation has relaxed into the desired range," stated Graham Cooke, head of consumer research at finder.com.au. Yet, he advises caution by noting that a conclusion is not definitive.

Conversely, some critics express restraint amid residual concerns over persistent inflation drivers and economic stability. The original article from news.com.au highlights that not all panel members endorse immediate rate adjustments.

Noel Whittaker, from the Queensland University of Technology, indicates patience might be prudent under current conditions, emphasizing, “Labour market constraints and high construction sector inflation continue to exert upward price pressures.”

Richard Holden of UNSW Business School raises another pertinent concern: core inflation metrics, after subsidies, linger above the two to three per cent target, pegged at 3.3 per cent. His colleague, Dr. Evgenia Dechter, concurs, suggesting the RBA's decision could err on the side of caution regarding the stability of core inflationary figures.

Sydney University’s Stella Huangfu also signals a pause, stating that while inflation nears target levels, the buoyant job market signals resilience in the economy which could dissuade immediate rate adjustments.

Adding to this cautious sentiment, Sean Langcake from Oxford Economics Australia identifies potential lingering pressures that could arise from unassessed elements of inflation once subsidies dissipate. He remarks that services inflation, buoyed by a tight labour market, continues to be a concern.

Furthermore, a depreciating Australian dollar may compound issues, increasing import costs and fuelling inflation. According to Peter Boehm, a managing director at Pathfinder Consulting, reducing rates might, in this context, amplify inflationary pressures rather than alleviate them.

External global factors also compound these domestic dynamics. The unpredictability in international trade climates, notably with geopolitical movements such as tariff policies from the US, add to the uncertainty clouding the RBA's path forward.

The RBA's forthcoming move will be its first potential readjustment since it initiated rate hikes four years ago. A cut, if it occurs, would indeed mark a pivotal shift from the 13 upward adjustments that have propelled the cash rate to 4.35 per cent.

This anticipated cut, should it materialise, promises tangible benefits for mortgage holders. Homeowners with an average mortgage may see a reduction in monthly payments, with notable savings in interest expenses.

With an election on the horizon, political stakeholders remain particularly vested in the RBA's decision. Treasurer Jim Chalmers maintains that even amid economic uncertainty, the government’s priority remains addressing cost-of-living challenges, underlining, "Our focus on alleviating financial burdens for Australians remains unwavering, irrespective of the RBA’s decision."

Published:Tuesday, 18th Feb 2025
Source: Paige Estritori

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