Markets Brace for Trumpflation as Rate Cut Mirage Fades
Markets Brace for Trumpflation as Rate Cut Mirage Fades
1
The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.
As Donald Trump embarks on his second presidential term, investors are shifting focus from a prolonged rate reduction period to what is being called 'Trumpflation'.
This marks a notable shift towards anticipating inflationary pressures under Trump's pro-growth policies.
Damien Hennessy, the Head of Asset Allocation at Zenith Investment Partners, highlights this change in sentiment as investors foresee potential inflation due to Trump's economic agenda coupled with record-high U.S. debt levels. Such dynamics could further intensify market volatility.
"Bond yields are climbing because the underlying U.S. economy has surpassed expectations, running into disinflationary headwinds seen in the last 12 to 18 months," Hennessy remarked. "This situation is now pressuring U.S. equity market valuations."
Reflecting on recent trends, back in September, low bond yields had investors bracing for a recession, with predictions for interest rates dropping to 2.8% by early 2026. Current expectations, however, have shifted towards a rate increase nearing 4%. The market has transitioned from forecasting up to nine cuts to possibly just one or two, signifying a significant turnaround.
Hennessy noted a rise in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields to 4.8%, impacting both the stock and bond markets. Concurrently, the U.S. dollar's rise has led to a depreciation of the Australian dollar to US62 cents.
"Market dynamics, driven by the anticipated rapid enactment of many of Trump's policies in 2025, hinge on sustained economic growth around 2.8%," explained Hennessy. "Yet, this optimism may face challenges as not all policies may be quickly executed as some expect."
With bond yields nearing 5%, Hennessy posits that bonds could offer substantial value for long-term investors, prompting a reconsideration of portfolio compositions to include bonds and duration. He added, "Until now, rising bond yields have been largely ignored by equity markets, but there comes a threshold where they begin to challenge equity valuations significantly."
The correlation between high bond yields and reduced risk premiums in equities necessitates confidence in continued earnings growth. Hennessy anticipates that the tension between bond yields and equity valuations will dominate market discussions throughout 2025.
Addressing the Australian market, Hennessy observed that local conditions remain challenging. "Valuations domestically are stretched, confronting Australian equities with a difficult environment. The sentiment may benefit slightly from a rate cut, but overall, the Australian share market faces considerable challenges."
The insights provided in this article are based on an analysis originally reported by Yasmine Raso on January 22, 2025.
Published:Wednesday, 22nd Jan 2025 Source: Paige Estritori
Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.
In February 2026, the New South Wales Government introduced stringent new laws granting police the authority to seize and crush illegal e-bikes that exceed specified power and speed limits. This initiative aims to address community concerns regarding overpowered e-bikes and associated anti-social behavior. - read more
Honda Australia has emerged as the leading motorcycle brand in 2025, achieving a remarkable 10% increase in sales over the previous year. The company sold a total of 21,901 motorcycles, solidifying its position at the forefront of the Australian market. - read more
The 2025 Australian Motorcycle Grand Prix, held at the Phillip Island Grand Prix Circuit, attracted approximately 91,245 visitors, marking the highest attendance since 2012. This surge in spectators provided a substantial economic boost to the Phillip Island region, benefiting local businesses such as hotels, restaurants, and retail outlets. - read more
An informed buyer is a savvy buyer, especially when it comes to navigating the vibrant motorbike market of Australia. With a wide array of choices, from sleek sports bikes to rugged off-roaders, understanding the marketplace is crucial for anyone considering a two-wheeled investment. - read more
Choosing the right motorcycle is crucial because it impacts your safety, enjoyment, and overall riding experience. A well-chosen bike can provide years of happiness, while a poorly chosen one might lead to frustration and unexpected costs. - read more
For many, the thrill and freedom that come with owning a motorcycle are unparalleled. Whether you're envisioning leisurely weekend rides through Australia's beautiful landscapes or using it for your daily commute, owning a motorcycle can bring an exciting new dimension to your life. - read more
START HERE
Get a free bike loan eligibility assessment and compare offers tailored
specifically to your circumstances.
Knowledgebase
Monetary Policy: The actions of a central bank or other regulatory authority that determine the size and rate of growth of the money supply.
