Markets Brace for Trumpflation as Rate Cut Mirage Fades
Markets Brace for Trumpflation as Rate Cut Mirage Fades
1
The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.
As Donald Trump embarks on his second presidential term, investors are shifting focus from a prolonged rate reduction period to what is being called 'Trumpflation'.
This marks a notable shift towards anticipating inflationary pressures under Trump's pro-growth policies.
Damien Hennessy, the Head of Asset Allocation at Zenith Investment Partners, highlights this change in sentiment as investors foresee potential inflation due to Trump's economic agenda coupled with record-high U.S. debt levels. Such dynamics could further intensify market volatility.
"Bond yields are climbing because the underlying U.S. economy has surpassed expectations, running into disinflationary headwinds seen in the last 12 to 18 months," Hennessy remarked. "This situation is now pressuring U.S. equity market valuations."
Reflecting on recent trends, back in September, low bond yields had investors bracing for a recession, with predictions for interest rates dropping to 2.8% by early 2026. Current expectations, however, have shifted towards a rate increase nearing 4%. The market has transitioned from forecasting up to nine cuts to possibly just one or two, signifying a significant turnaround.
Hennessy noted a rise in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields to 4.8%, impacting both the stock and bond markets. Concurrently, the U.S. dollar's rise has led to a depreciation of the Australian dollar to US62 cents.
"Market dynamics, driven by the anticipated rapid enactment of many of Trump's policies in 2025, hinge on sustained economic growth around 2.8%," explained Hennessy. "Yet, this optimism may face challenges as not all policies may be quickly executed as some expect."
With bond yields nearing 5%, Hennessy posits that bonds could offer substantial value for long-term investors, prompting a reconsideration of portfolio compositions to include bonds and duration. He added, "Until now, rising bond yields have been largely ignored by equity markets, but there comes a threshold where they begin to challenge equity valuations significantly."
The correlation between high bond yields and reduced risk premiums in equities necessitates confidence in continued earnings growth. Hennessy anticipates that the tension between bond yields and equity valuations will dominate market discussions throughout 2025.
Addressing the Australian market, Hennessy observed that local conditions remain challenging. "Valuations domestically are stretched, confronting Australian equities with a difficult environment. The sentiment may benefit slightly from a rate cut, but overall, the Australian share market faces considerable challenges."
The insights provided in this article are based on an analysis originally reported by Yasmine Raso on January 22, 2025.
Published:Wednesday, 22nd Jan 2025 Source: Paige Estritori
Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.
MotorCycle Holdings Limited (ASX: MTO), Australia's largest motorcycle retailer, has announced a record sales revenue of $650 million for the financial year 2025, marking an 11.6% increase from the previous year. This achievement comes despite a general softening in the national motorcycle market. - read more
Austrian motorcycle manufacturer KTM AG has successfully secured €600 million in funding, enabling the company to fulfill its debt obligations and complete its restructuring plan. This development is particularly significant for Australian riders and dealers who rely on KTM's presence in the market. - read more
KTM AG, the renowned Austrian motorcycle manufacturer, has successfully secured €600 million in funding, enabling the company to fulfill its restructuring plan and stabilize its financial position. This development is particularly significant for Australian riders and dealers who rely on KTM's presence in the market. - read more
Buying a motorcycle is an exciting adventure, especially for enthusiasts who have been dreaming of hitting the open road for years. The thrill of finding the perfect bike, imagining all the journeys it will take you on, and finally making it your own can be immensely rewarding. - read more
Financing a motorcycle can be an exciting prospect, offering the freedom and thrill of the open road. However, it's crucial to navigate the process wisely to avoid common pitfalls that can lead to financial troubles. In Australia, where motorcycle ownership is popular, understanding the key mistakes to avoid is essential for a smooth financing experience. - read more
With the advent of technology, purchasing a motorcycle online has become an increasingly popular choice for Australians looking to hit the open road. Online bike marketplaces are booming, providing riders with unparalleled access to a broad array of options right from their digital devices. Convenience is at the forefront of this digital revolution; you can now browse, compare, and research bikes from the comfort of your home. - read more
START HERE
Get a free bike loan eligibility assessment and compare offers tailored
specifically to your circumstances.
Knowledgebase
Tax Deferral: A situation where a taxpayer is allowed to delay paying taxes on income until a future date, commonly seen in retirement accounts.
