Markets Brace for Trumpflation as Rate Cut Mirage Fades
Markets Brace for Trumpflation as Rate Cut Mirage Fades
1
As Donald Trump embarks on his second presidential term, investors are shifting focus from a prolonged rate reduction period to what is being called 'Trumpflation'.
This marks a notable shift towards anticipating inflationary pressures under Trump's pro-growth policies.
Damien Hennessy, the Head of Asset Allocation at Zenith Investment Partners, highlights this change in sentiment as investors foresee potential inflation due to Trump's economic agenda coupled with record-high U.S. debt levels. Such dynamics could further intensify market volatility.
"Bond yields are climbing because the underlying U.S. economy has surpassed expectations, running into disinflationary headwinds seen in the last 12 to 18 months," Hennessy remarked. "This situation is now pressuring U.S. equity market valuations."
Reflecting on recent trends, back in September, low bond yields had investors bracing for a recession, with predictions for interest rates dropping to 2.8% by early 2026. Current expectations, however, have shifted towards a rate increase nearing 4%. The market has transitioned from forecasting up to nine cuts to possibly just one or two, signifying a significant turnaround.
Hennessy noted a rise in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields to 4.8%, impacting both the stock and bond markets. Concurrently, the U.S. dollar's rise has led to a depreciation of the Australian dollar to US62 cents.
"Market dynamics, driven by the anticipated rapid enactment of many of Trump's policies in 2025, hinge on sustained economic growth around 2.8%," explained Hennessy. "Yet, this optimism may face challenges as not all policies may be quickly executed as some expect."
With bond yields nearing 5%, Hennessy posits that bonds could offer substantial value for long-term investors, prompting a reconsideration of portfolio compositions to include bonds and duration. He added, "Until now, rising bond yields have been largely ignored by equity markets, but there comes a threshold where they begin to challenge equity valuations significantly."
The correlation between high bond yields and reduced risk premiums in equities necessitates confidence in continued earnings growth. Hennessy anticipates that the tension between bond yields and equity valuations will dominate market discussions throughout 2025.
Addressing the Australian market, Hennessy observed that local conditions remain challenging. "Valuations domestically are stretched, confronting Australian equities with a difficult environment. The sentiment may benefit slightly from a rate cut, but overall, the Australian share market faces considerable challenges."
The insights provided in this article are based on an analysis originally reported by Yasmine Raso on January 22, 2025.
Published:Wednesday, 22nd Jan 2025 Source: Paige Estritori
Harley-Davidson, the iconic American motorcycle manufacturer, is reportedly in discussions to sell a stake in its financing arm, Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS). This move could have significant implications for Australian riders seeking financing options for their motorcycle purchases. - read more
MotorCycle Holdings Limited (ASX: MTO) has significantly expanded its national footprint by acquiring select dealership and eCommerce assets from the Peter Stevens and Harley-Heaven networks. This strategic move enhances the company's presence across four Australian states and introduces new product categories to its portfolio. - read more
MotorCycle Holdings Limited (ASX: MTO), Australia's largest motorcycle retailer, has reported a record sales revenue of $650 million for the financial year 2025, marking an 11.6% increase from the previous year. This achievement comes despite a general softening in the national motorcycle market. - read more
Motorcycle financing options in Australia can be complex and varied. Whether you are a seasoned rider looking to upgrade your bike or a beginner planning to purchase your first motorcycle, understanding the different financing options available to you can save you time and money. In this blog article, we will delve into the various motorcycle financing options in Australia, providing you with the information you need to make an informed decision. - read more
Securing a motorcycle loan in Australia requires careful preparation of your financial documents. These documents play a crucial role in determining your eligibility and the terms of your loan. - read more
Refinancing a motorcycle loan involves replacing your current loan with a new one, typically with better terms. This process can help you save money by securing a lower interest rate, reducing your monthly payments, or even shortening the loan term. - read more
START HERE
Get a free bike loan eligibility assessment and compare offers tailored
specifically to your circumstances.
Knowledgebase
Conventional Loan: A type of mortgage loan that is not insured or guaranteed by the government.
