Markets Brace for Trumpflation as Rate Cut Mirage Fades
Markets Brace for Trumpflation as Rate Cut Mirage Fades
1
The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.
As Donald Trump embarks on his second presidential term, investors are shifting focus from a prolonged rate reduction period to what is being called 'Trumpflation'.
This marks a notable shift towards anticipating inflationary pressures under Trump's pro-growth policies.
Damien Hennessy, the Head of Asset Allocation at Zenith Investment Partners, highlights this change in sentiment as investors foresee potential inflation due to Trump's economic agenda coupled with record-high U.S. debt levels. Such dynamics could further intensify market volatility.
"Bond yields are climbing because the underlying U.S. economy has surpassed expectations, running into disinflationary headwinds seen in the last 12 to 18 months," Hennessy remarked. "This situation is now pressuring U.S. equity market valuations."
Reflecting on recent trends, back in September, low bond yields had investors bracing for a recession, with predictions for interest rates dropping to 2.8% by early 2026. Current expectations, however, have shifted towards a rate increase nearing 4%. The market has transitioned from forecasting up to nine cuts to possibly just one or two, signifying a significant turnaround.
Hennessy noted a rise in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields to 4.8%, impacting both the stock and bond markets. Concurrently, the U.S. dollar's rise has led to a depreciation of the Australian dollar to US62 cents.
"Market dynamics, driven by the anticipated rapid enactment of many of Trump's policies in 2025, hinge on sustained economic growth around 2.8%," explained Hennessy. "Yet, this optimism may face challenges as not all policies may be quickly executed as some expect."
With bond yields nearing 5%, Hennessy posits that bonds could offer substantial value for long-term investors, prompting a reconsideration of portfolio compositions to include bonds and duration. He added, "Until now, rising bond yields have been largely ignored by equity markets, but there comes a threshold where they begin to challenge equity valuations significantly."
The correlation between high bond yields and reduced risk premiums in equities necessitates confidence in continued earnings growth. Hennessy anticipates that the tension between bond yields and equity valuations will dominate market discussions throughout 2025.
Addressing the Australian market, Hennessy observed that local conditions remain challenging. "Valuations domestically are stretched, confronting Australian equities with a difficult environment. The sentiment may benefit slightly from a rate cut, but overall, the Australian share market faces considerable challenges."
The insights provided in this article are based on an analysis originally reported by Yasmine Raso on January 22, 2025.
Published:Wednesday, 22nd Jan 2025 Source: Paige Estritori
Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.
KTM AG, the renowned Austrian motorcycle manufacturer, has successfully secured €600 million in funding, enabling the company to fulfill its debt obligations and complete its restructuring plan. This development is particularly significant for Australian riders and dealers who rely on KTM's presence in the market. - read more
MotorCycle Holdings Limited (ASX: MTO), Australia's largest motorcycle retailer, has announced a record sales revenue of $650 million for the financial year 2025, representing an 11.6% increase from the previous year. This achievement underscores the company's strategic initiatives and resilience in a challenging market. - read more
The Australian motorcycle market demonstrated stability in the first half of 2025, with a total of 42,549 units sold between January and June, mirroring the figures from the same period in 2024. This steadiness reflects the market's resilience amid ongoing economic challenges. - read more
There’s nothing quite like the excitement and sense of freedom that comes with owning a motorcycle. Hitting the open road, feeling the wind rush past you, and experiencing the thrill of two wheels is truly unmatched. - read more
Motorcycle financing offers a convenient way for Australian buyers to afford their dream bikes. With the rising costs of motorcycles, many enthusiasts find it challenging to purchase their desired models outright. This is where motorcycle financing becomes a popular option. By spreading the cost over a fixed period, buyers can enjoy the freedom and flexibility of riding their dream motorcycles without depleting their savings. - read more
The thrill of owning a new bike is unmatched, especially for enthusiasts who dream of hitting the open road with the wind in their hair and a powerful engine beneath them. Bike loans make this dream accessible, offering a structured way to finance your two-wheeled companion without the upfront financial strain. - read more
START HERE
Get a free bike loan eligibility assessment and compare offers tailored
specifically to your circumstances.
Knowledgebase
Adjustable-Rate Mortgage (ARM): A type of mortgage in which the interest rate applied on the outstanding balance varies throughout the life of the loan.
